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The report pointed out that high-earning households “have the connections and wherewithal to engage in sophisticated tax planning” and avoid paying taxes.

Finally, with inflation much higher now, every one of the dollars collected by the state, even as there are more of them, is less valuable

“There are a lot more ways for our economy to stumble and a lot fewer chances to accelerate,” Horowitz said.

Evan Horowitz also predicted an uptick in state revenues next fiscal year but said inflation will still be a lingering “dark cloud.”

“In terms of state tax revenue, Massachusetts may already be overdue for a correction," Horowitz said.

Both Howgate and Evan Horowitz said the main reason earlier predictions were so wrong was that no one was counting on such a large infusion of federal cash.

“It’s a totally different landscape about the need to raise revenue and what the revenue is for,” said Evan Horowitz

"It was originally a multi-state effort to put a price on the carbon in motor fuel...and thereby reduce the amount of carbon and reduce the amount of other emissions."

“You have lots of complicated questions about who’s going to get it because everyone wants a piece of it, so you need something that’s going to force a compromise or force decisions,”