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"A recent report by Tufts University’s Center for State Policy Analysis suggested revenue generated by the proposed surtax would be much less because some wealthy individuals would leave the state or find a way around the new levy."

"From a financial and economic perspective, there’s still a perfectively sensible, reasonable argument to implement the tax because it’s raising money from the wealthiest households in a way that’s quite progressive.”

The report pointed out that high-earning households “have the connections and wherewithal to engage in sophisticated tax planning” and avoid paying taxes.

But because a small number of millionaires would likely move and far more would use legal tax avoidance schemes to get around paying the tax, that would cut the revenue by 35 percent, to around $1.3 billion.

The study from The Center For State Policy Analysis at Tufts University took a closer look at what the 4% surcharge on incomes over $1 million would mean for Massachusetts.

"We don't see the substantial risk from depressed economic activity and large number of people moving out of state," Horowitz said. "It's chiefly an accounting issue, not an economic one."

Coverage on WBUR's Morning Edition

“In terms of state tax revenue, Massachusetts may already be overdue for a correction," Horowitz said.

Finally, with inflation much higher now, every one of the dollars collected by the state, even as there are more of them, is less valuable