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Where the money goes "depends on a lot of different factors," Horowitz said. "How strong are the unions pushing for you to use this money in a particular way? How accountable are your politicians? How easy is it to count up the money?"

In 2019, just 0.6% of Massachusetts households boasted incomes above $1 million — yet they accounted for 22% of all taxable income, the Center for State Policy Analysis said in January.

The report by Tufts University’s Center for State Policy Analysis concluded that while the ballot question clearly states that the money must be devoted to education and transportation, not all the surtax revenue is likely to be spent in those areas.

The tax could still generate $1.3 billion a year, according to a January report (Evaluating the Massachusetts Millionaires Tax) prepared by the Center for State Policy Analysis

It would add an estimated $1.3 billion in annual revenue for the state, according to a report published this year by the Center for State Policy Analysis at Tufts University.

f passed, Question One...would add an estimated $1.3 billion in annual revenue for the state, according to a report published this year by the Center for State Policy Analysis at Tufts University.

Evan Horowitz made a similar point when he said he fears that when Healey’s team takes the corner office in January, “people start asking, ‘What is the first bill you’re going to file? What is the actual top priority?’"

That [$2 billion revenue] number has been contested in previous reports, with estimates from the Center for State Policy Analysis at Tufts University sitting around $1.3 billion.

“It’s mostly a quirk of the pandemic,” said Horowitz. “It’s a very weird economic time and laws written for normal economic times may go a little haywire.”