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The money—about $1.3 billion in 2023, according to a Tufts University estimate—would go to education, roads, bridges, and public transit...About 0.6 percent of Bay State households would pay the surtax, according to Tufts.

A $1,000 tax credit, given out to some 3 million eligible households, would also mirror the $3 billion figure certified by the state auditor, Horowitz said.

The report by Tufts University’s Center for State Policy Analysis concluded that while the ballot question clearly states that the money must be devoted to education and transportation, not all the surtax revenue is likely to be spent in those areas.

Evan Horowitz, who reviewed these documents for Axios, says budget analysts faced a complex "accounting game" before June 30 because of the automatic tax refunds.

Tufts added that “even limited spending increases in education could bring real benefits, potentially including greater racial and economic equity; the benefits of transit and transportation spending are less clear.”

Tufts University’s Center for State Policy Analysis did an analysis of the possible outcomes and found that this measure passing is unlikely to have a major impact on consumer costs.

The Center for State Policy Analysis has estimated that as much as 35 percent of the estimated revenue from the tax will be avoided by people leaving the state or changing some of their decisions as investors and business owners.

"Whatever voters decide on Question 3, the broader fight over alcohol sales in Massachusetts is likely to continue, with more expansive ballot questions in the years ahead," Evan Horowitz, the group's executive director, wrote in the report.

The report, which strikes a neutral stance on Ballot Question 3 overall, notes that cities and towns across Massachusetts would still have the power to limit the volume of liquor licenses in their individual jurisdictions.