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A report by the Tufts University’s Center for State Policy Analysis estimated the state will collect about $1.3 billion in 2023 from the roughly 26,000 wealthy households that will likely be subject to the surtax.

But, Tufts researchers cautioned, the new law could lead to “widespread” tax avoidance that would seriously cut into the amount of revenue raised by the state.

“It’s probably best to think of this as the beginning of a long, cat-and-mouse game of tax avoidance that high earners will be playing against the state for decades to come,” warned Horowitz.

The Center for State Policy Analysis at Tufts University estimated that fiscal year 2024 state tax revenue will land at $40.2 billion.

Evan Horowitz, executive director of the Center for State Policy Analysis at Tufts University, views the situation differently. He says put the money where it’s needed, and don’t stick to rigid formulas.

“According to our projections, it would take another set of inopportune events for the state to hit the 62F limit again in the coming years,” Horowitz said.

Evan Horowitz, executive director of Tufts University’s Center for State Policy Analysis, and Doug Howgate, president of the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation, urged lawmakers to spend a specific amount of the surtax revenue annually.

Horowitz said he expects the state will collect between $38 billion and $38.5 billion in taxes over the course of fiscal year 2023, an amount “well below” the current benchmark “and even further below the expected 62F cap for this year.”

Evan Horowitz, the executive director of the Center for State Policy Analysis at Tufts University, told lawmakers it would be “safe and sensible” to budget for $750 million to $1 billion in high income tax revenue next year.