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The report by Tufts University’s Center for State Policy Analysis concluded that while the ballot question clearly states that the money must be devoted to education and transportation, not all the surtax revenue is likely to be spent in those areas.

Tufts added that “even limited spending increases in education could bring real benefits, potentially including greater racial and economic equity; the benefits of transit and transportation spending are less clear.”

Evan Horowitz, who reviewed these documents for Axios, says budget analysts faced a complex "accounting game" before June 30 because of the automatic tax refunds.

The report, which strikes a neutral stance on Ballot Question 3 overall, notes that cities and towns across Massachusetts would still have the power to limit the volume of liquor licenses in their individual jurisdictions.

Tufts University’s Center for State Policy Analysis did an analysis of the possible outcomes and found that this measure passing is unlikely to have a major impact on consumer costs.

The Center for State Policy Analysis has estimated that as much as 35 percent of the estimated revenue from the tax will be avoided by people leaving the state or changing some of their decisions as investors and business owners.

"Whatever voters decide on Question 3, the broader fight over alcohol sales in Massachusetts is likely to continue, with more expansive ballot questions in the years ahead," Evan Horowitz, the group's executive director, wrote in the report.

cSPA issued a report last week that predicted a mix of outcomes: Insurers may lower monthly premiums, streamline operations..., or pay more in dental claims by covering more procedures or allowing dentists to bill higher prices.

The report by Tuft’s University’s Center for State Policy Analysis suggested that while most large dental insurers would likely be able to comply with proposed requirements, smaller providers would face increased financial pressures.