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The study from The Center For State Policy Analysis at Tufts University took a closer look at what the 4% surcharge on incomes over $1 million would mean for Massachusetts.

"We don't see the substantial risk from depressed economic activity and large number of people moving out of state," Horowitz said. "It's chiefly an accounting issue, not an economic one."

Coverage on WBUR's Morning Edition

“In terms of state tax revenue, Massachusetts may already be overdue for a correction," Horowitz said.

Finally, with inflation much higher now, every one of the dollars collected by the state, even as there are more of them, is less valuable

“There are a lot more ways for our economy to stumble and a lot fewer chances to accelerate,” Horowitz said.

Evan Horowitz also predicted an uptick in state revenues next fiscal year but said inflation will still be a lingering “dark cloud.”

Both Howgate and Evan Horowitz said the main reason earlier predictions were so wrong was that no one was counting on such a large infusion of federal cash.

“It’s a totally different landscape about the need to raise revenue and what the revenue is for,” said Evan Horowitz