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The report pointed out that high-earning households “have the connections and wherewithal to engage in sophisticated tax planning” and avoid paying taxes.

But because a small number of millionaires would likely move and far more would use legal tax avoidance schemes to get around paying the tax, that would cut the revenue by 35 percent, to around $1.3 billion.

The study from The Center For State Policy Analysis at Tufts University took a closer look at what the 4% surcharge on incomes over $1 million would mean for Massachusetts.

"We don't see the substantial risk from depressed economic activity and large number of people moving out of state," Horowitz said. "It's chiefly an accounting issue, not an economic one."

Coverage on WBUR's Morning Edition

“In terms of state tax revenue, Massachusetts may already be overdue for a correction," Horowitz said.

Finally, with inflation much higher now, every one of the dollars collected by the state, even as there are more of them, is less valuable

“There are a lot more ways for our economy to stumble and a lot fewer chances to accelerate,” Horowitz said.

Evan Horowitz also predicted an uptick in state revenues next fiscal year but said inflation will still be a lingering “dark cloud.”