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"We don't see the substantial risk from depressed economic activity and large number of people moving out of state," Horowitz said. "It's chiefly an accounting issue, not an economic one."

Coverage on WBUR's Morning Edition

"From a financial and economic perspective, there’s still a perfectively sensible, reasonable argument to implement the tax because it’s raising money from the wealthiest households in a way that’s quite progressive.”

The report pointed out that high-earning households “have the connections and wherewithal to engage in sophisticated tax planning” and avoid paying taxes.

Finally, with inflation much higher now, every one of the dollars collected by the state, even as there are more of them, is less valuable

“There are a lot more ways for our economy to stumble and a lot fewer chances to accelerate,” Horowitz said.

Evan Horowitz also predicted an uptick in state revenues next fiscal year but said inflation will still be a lingering “dark cloud.”

“In terms of state tax revenue, Massachusetts may already be overdue for a correction," Horowitz said.

Both Howgate and Evan Horowitz said the main reason earlier predictions were so wrong was that no one was counting on such a large infusion of federal cash.