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Horowitz suggested that any extra revenue garnered from the surtax should be funneled into a separate savings account — similar to how the state handle revenues from capital gains.

Horowitz added, “What is more, our modeling suggests that even ignoring the impact of inflation we are likely to end this fiscal year with a revenue shortfall of roughly $1 billion. The decisive factor will be April collections.

Evan Horowitz, executive director of Tufts University’s Center for State Policy Analysis, and Doug Howgate, president of the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation, urged lawmakers to spend a specific amount of the surtax revenue annually.

Horowitz said he expects the state will collect between $38 billion and $38.5 billion in taxes over the course of fiscal year 2023, an amount “well below” the current benchmark “and even further below the expected 62F cap for this year.”

About 0.6% of households would be hit by the new 9% rate, according to a study by the Tufts University Center for State Policy Analysis last year.

Radio Boston interviews Evan Horowitz about the gap between the minimum and living wage

"There aren't great big initiatives that he drove," Horowitz said. "And the ones where he really seemed to try to stamp with his imprimatur didn't thrive."

Researchers at cSPA say the surtax will likely only apply to about 0.6% of Massachusetts households in any given year. The center estimated that in 2023, at least 26,000 — less than 1% of the state’s households — will earn greater than $1 million.

cSPA estimates there were 21,000 state taxpayers in 2019 — the last year for which they had complete data — with incomes of more than $1 million, amounting to 0.6% of all households. Yet, these households earned 22% of all taxable income in Massachusetts.