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But, Tufts researchers cautioned, the new law could lead to “widespread” tax avoidance that would seriously cut into the amount of revenue raised by the state.

The Center for State Policy Analysis at Tufts University estimated that fiscal year 2024 state tax revenue will land at $40.2 billion.

Evan Horowitz, executive director of the Center for State Policy Analysis at Tufts University, views the situation differently. He says put the money where it’s needed, and don’t stick to rigid formulas.

“According to our projections, it would take another set of inopportune events for the state to hit the 62F limit again in the coming years,” Horowitz said.

Horowitz proposed including $750 million to $1 billion of the millionaire tax revenue in the fiscal 2024 budget and setting any additional money aside in a “savings and stabilization plan.”

Horowitz suggested that any extra revenue garnered from the surtax should be funneled into a separate savings account — similar to how the state handle revenues from capital gains.

Horowitz added, “What is more, our modeling suggests that even ignoring the impact of inflation we are likely to end this fiscal year with a revenue shortfall of roughly $1 billion. The decisive factor will be April collections.

Evan Horowitz, executive director of Tufts University’s Center for State Policy Analysis, and Doug Howgate, president of the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation, urged lawmakers to spend a specific amount of the surtax revenue annually.

Horowitz said he expects the state will collect between $38 billion and $38.5 billion in taxes over the course of fiscal year 2023, an amount “well below” the current benchmark “and even further below the expected 62F cap for this year.”