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A recent report by the Tufts University’s Center for State Policy Analysis estimated the state will collect about $1.3 billion in 2023 from the roughly 26,000 wealthy households that will likely be subject to the surtax.

“There are some tax cuts that help wealthy people that are also good for competitiveness. And then there are some tax cuts that just help wealthy people, and these are closer to the latter,” said Horowitz.

“Sometimes tax cuts that benefit wealthy people also are important for competitiveness. Sometimes they’re not — they’re just tax cuts that benefit wealthy people,” he said.

"It has a long term cost of roughly nearly a billion dollars a year. That's a pretty significant permanent tax change to the tax system," said Evan Horowitz, executive director at the Center for State Policy Analysis at Tufts University. "

Efforts to avoid the tax could mean a cut in the expected revenue by $800 million. “Together, cross-border moves and tax avoidance would reduce millionaires tax revenue by roughly 35 percent,” the center said.

A report by the Tufts University’s Center for State Policy Analysis estimated the state will collect about $1.3 billion in 2023 from the roughly 26,000 wealthy households that will likely be subject to the surtax.

“It’s probably best to think of this as the beginning of a long, cat-and-mouse game of tax avoidance that high earners will be playing against the state for decades to come,” warned Horowitz.

But, Tufts researchers cautioned, the new law could lead to “widespread” tax avoidance that would seriously cut into the amount of revenue raised by the state.

The Center for State Policy Analysis at Tufts University estimated that fiscal year 2024 state tax revenue will land at $40.2 billion.