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“This is not a calamitous collapse in tax revenue. It’s a one-month shortfall. It was a big one month shortfall, but we’re still on track for the year,” Evan Horowitz, executive director of cSPA, told Playbook.

"That's a pretty substantial shortfall, and it really does change the tax trajectory for the fiscal year," said Evan Horowitz, executive director of the Center for State Policy Analysis at Tufts University.

Evan Horowitz, executive director at the Center for State Policy Analysis at Tufts University, traced the downturn to over-optimistic assumptions about revenue growth.

“It’s the first month that all the weirdness of COVID was flushed out of the tax system,” Horowitz said. The revenue drop, he added, is a “reminder that the unusual times we’ve been living through were quite unusual.”

He said he’s surprised at just how much chatter he’s hearing about people wanting to leave. “A lot of it is gossip and it’s too early to have hard data,” he said. “But the gossip is super interesting and revealing in some way.”

Neutral analysts like Evan Horowitz of the Tufts Center for State Policy Analysis who called the cap-gains cut and her proposed estate tax reforms “just tax cuts that benefit wealthy people.”

Radio Boston hosts discussion of the plan and what it means for residents with Evan Horowitz, executive director of The Center for State Policy Analysis

Evan Horowitz, executive director of The Center for State Policy Analysis, delved into Gov. HMaura ealey’s budget and tax package.

A recent report by the Tufts University’s Center for State Policy Analysis estimated the state will collect about $1.3 billion in 2023 from the roughly 26,000 wealthy households that will likely be subject to the surtax.