Measuring the Earmark for Conservation and Recreation

Among the ballot questions wending their way toward Massachusetts voters is a proposal to divert some sales tax revenue into a special account for nature conservation and outdoor recreation.

Rather than specify a fixed dollar amount, the ballot initiative would earmark existing sales tax dollars collected at recreation-focused outlets like sporting goods stores. And this makes it challenging for voters to understand the actual scale of the proposal.

As part of our commitment to analyzing all state ballot questions, we have produced an estimate of the likely size of this earmark, based on historical sales and budget data. We find that:

• The earmark is relatively small, roughly $65 million when fully phased in.
• Currently, the state spends upwards of $400 million each year on recreation and conservation efforts, counting both on-budget and bond-supported spending.
• Nothing in this ballot question compels the Legislature to increase spending on conservation and recreation efforts. They could use this earmarked money to support existing programs or potentially ignore the earmark altogether.