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Evan Horowitz, the executive director of the Center for State Policy Analysis at Tufts University, told lawmakers it would be “safe and sensible” to budget for $750 million to $1 billion in high income tax revenue next year.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty around millionaire’s tax revenue at this stage of its implementation, which makes it risky to commit all dollars,” Horowitz said.

Horowitz also expects the policy’s implementation will lead to roughly half a billion dollars in lost income tax revenue “as taxpayers who leave the state or engage in tax avoidance will end up skirting both the millionaires tax and the state income tax.

About 0.6% of households would be hit by the new 9% rate, according to a study by the Tufts University Center for State Policy Analysis last year.

Radio Boston interviews Evan Horowitz about the gap between the minimum and living wage

"There aren't great big initiatives that he drove," Horowitz said. "And the ones where he really seemed to try to stamp with his imprimatur didn't thrive."

Researchers at cSPA say the surtax will likely only apply to about 0.6% of Massachusetts households in any given year. The center estimated that in 2023, at least 26,000 — less than 1% of the state’s households — will earn greater than $1 million.

cSPA estimates there were 21,000 state taxpayers in 2019 — the last year for which they had complete data — with incomes of more than $1 million, amounting to 0.6% of all households. Yet, these households earned 22% of all taxable income in Massachusetts.

cSPA estimates there were 21,000 state taxpayers in 2019 — the last year for which they had complete data — with incomes of more than $1 million, amounting to 0.6% of all households. Yet, these households earned 22% of all taxable income in Massachusetts.