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In the view of researchers, “aggressive tax avoidance would be a bigger challenge than an exodus of high earners.”

Research from Tufts University’s Center for State Policy Analysis suggests about 26,000 Massachusetts households — fewer than 1% — could be impacted by the tax in 2023, should the question pass.

“One of the ironies of this ballot initiative is that some of the information that we really need to craft it properly and assess its impact thoroughly, we can only get after it passes."

A study from Tufts University’s Center for State Policy Analysis said that the change would generate about $1.3 billion of revenue in 2023 and would apply to about 0.6% of households in the state.

We don’t know, and neither do the authors of the Tufts University Center for State Policy Analysis report who concluded, “it’s not clear whether dental insurers are currently close to — or far from — the proposed 83% requirement...”

"The number of people who will pay because they sell their own home is vanishingly small," agrees Evan Horowitz of the non-partisan Tufts Center for State Policy Analysis.

But of the households that had incomes higher than $1 million in 2019, only about a third of that income came from salaries or paychecks, according to a report from Tufts University’s Center for State Policy Analysis.

cSPA, which issued a report on the ballot question, didn’t suggest that premiums would increase, but said that the amounts insurers pay to dentists might rise, though ”the scale of these increases should be limited,” the report said.

“But, if they make the changes that we’ve seen in other states, some people move — not too many, but some — and lots of people try to hide their money or avoid taxes in other ways, then you end up raising about $1.3 billion.”