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Horowitz suggested that any extra revenue garnered from the surtax should be funneled into a separate savings account — similar to how the state handle revenues from capital gains.

Horowitz added, “What is more, our modeling suggests that even ignoring the impact of inflation we are likely to end this fiscal year with a revenue shortfall of roughly $1 billion. The decisive factor will be April collections.

About 0.6% of households would be hit by the new 9% rate, according to a study by the Tufts University Center for State Policy Analysis last year.

Radio Boston interviews Evan Horowitz about the gap between the minimum and living wage

Researchers at cSPA say the surtax will likely only apply to about 0.6% of Massachusetts households in any given year. The center estimated that in 2023, at least 26,000 — less than 1% of the state’s households — will earn greater than $1 million.

"There aren't great big initiatives that he drove," Horowitz said. "And the ones where he really seemed to try to stamp with his imprimatur didn't thrive."

cSPA estimates there were 21,000 state taxpayers in 2019 — the last year for which they had complete data — with incomes of more than $1 million, amounting to 0.6% of all households. Yet, these households earned 22% of all taxable income in Massachusetts.

cSPA estimates there were 21,000 state taxpayers in 2019 — the last year for which they had complete data — with incomes of more than $1 million, amounting to 0.6% of all households. Yet, these households earned 22% of all taxable income in Massachusetts.

Evan Horowitz, executive director of The Center for State Policy Analysis at Tufts University, described the secretary of state’s proposed exemption as reasonable while noting that it would not impact many residents.