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A study from Tufts University’s Center for State Policy Analysis estimated that the surtax would bring in $1.3 billion in 2023 and apply to 0.6% of Massachusetts households in any given year.

“This did not come out of a rigorous set of studies or a deep analysis of the dental insurance world,” he said. “Nobody’s done that, and partly we haven’t done that because that information just doesn’t exist."

The CSPA report says insurers could meet the 83% standard in several ways, such as covering a wide range of procedures or by letting dentists charge a higher price and pass costs onto patients.

According to a report from the Center for State Policy Analysis at Tufts University, the tax would affect just 0.6 percent of Massachusetts households, and would generate some $1.3 billion in 2023 alone.

A January study by cSPA looked at the last complete year of tax data from the Internal Revenue Service and found that 21,000 tax filers, or 0.6 percent of all Massachusetts households, made more than $1 million in income in 2019.

According to a study by the Tufts University Center for State Policy Analysis, the tax would only apply to around 0.6% of Massachusetts households in any given year.

“It's not clear that this ballot initiative was ever designed really to solve a problem for patients. It's designed to intervene in an ongoing dispute between insurers and dentists about where the money goes,” Horowitz said.

Video podcast covering all four ballot questions

Video podcast covering all four ballot questions